Kairos : Strategic Briefing
Point of Analysis (PoA): 21 October 2025
"Commander's Log, PoA: 21 October 2025. The breakdown is clean. All key daily supports are lost. This is a risk-off cascade. The directive is simple: stay out of the way. We preserve capital and wait for the dust to settle. This is not the time for heroics."
📈 KAIROS Market State: Bull Market Shakeout
A severe, risk-off correction is underway within a larger strategic bull market.
STRATEGIC MAP
🟢
Late Bull
Long-term forecast remains bullish, classing this as a deep correction, not a new bear market.
PHOENIX SCORE
TACTICAL VIEW
❌
Corrective Breakdown
All major crypto assets have broken key daily support levels as capital flees to cash.
Overall Market Condition: ⚠️ CAUTION
Phoenix Score Analysis
CYCLE POSITION
PHOENIX SCORE DIAGNOSTICS
SYNTHESIS & DEBRIEF
Sentiment & Funding: The Phoenix Score's low confidence reading for a cycle top is reinforced by on-chart data. Negative funding and seller dominance signal fear, not the euphoria required for a terminal top.
Capital Rotation: A classic "Risk-Off" rotation is visible. Rising Bitcoin Dominance and sharply rising USDT Dominance show capital fleeing Alts and BTC for the safety of cash—the opposite of a blow-off top.
Conclusion: The low Phoenix score, combined with the risk-off capital rotation, strongly supports the "shakeout" thesis. This is a corrective move within a larger bull structure, not a cycle-ending event.
Tactical Weather Report
Structure:
BTC has lost its Daily EMA 50 ($113,875) and EMA 100 ($112,889) and is now testing its Daily EMA 200 ($108,080). This is a significant loss of market structure. ETH and the Altcoin Market Cap show identical breakdowns.
Flows (Risk-Off):
The flight to safety is confirmed by USDT.D breaking above all its key EMAs (50, 100, 200). This shows a clear and aggressive demand for cash, acting as a strong headwind for all risk assets.
Momentum:
The RSI on BTC (42.42), ETH (43.82), and the Altcoin Cap (43.10) is firmly below the 50-level, indicating that bearish momentum is in control. The market is seller-dominant.
Inter-Market Signal Matrix
Analysis: The divergence in traditional markets persists and reinforces the risk-off tone. Gold remains in **Extreme Greed**, while the S&P 500 is in a state of **Fear**. Capital continues to flee equities and crowd into safe havens, signaling instability that negatively impacts risk assets like crypto.
Commander's Directive: Action Plan
The immediate tactical situation is dangerous. The strategic map suggests this is a "shakeout," not "the end." The primary directive is capital preservation and patience. Do not try to catch a falling knife.
IMMEDIATE POSTURE: MAXIMUM DEFENSIVE
- DO NOT deploy new long positions.
- DO NOT attempt to short into an already extended downward move.
- DO remain in cash (stablecoins).
- DO monitor key support levels for signs of a bottom.
KEY LEVELS & ZONES OF INTEREST
🎯 Bullish Targets / Resistance
BTC: $112,890 - $113,875
(Lost Daily EMA 100 & 50)
🛡️ Bearish Targets / Support (POI)
BTC: $96,000 - $108,080
(EMA 200 & Main Support)
CONDITIONS FOR (RE-)ENGAGEMENT
- Cash Signal: USDT.D must show a clear rejection from its highs and break below its Daily EMAs.
- Asset Signal: BTC must reclaim a key structural level (e.g., Daily EMA 100 at $112,890) and build support.
- Momentum Signal: The Daily RSI on major assets must reclaim the 50-level.
Phoenix Protocol: 5-Year Forecast Snapshot
The following is the latest 5-year market prediction based on our proprietary Phoenix Protocol. This data provides a long-range strategic map for portfolio management and cycle awareness.
RISK ADVISORY & DISCLAIMER
The content provided in this briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. MacroTactix is not a registered investment advisor. All decisions based on this information are your sole responsibility. Trading and investing in digital assets involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The opinions expressed are to change without notice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional.